Apple and Intel, The Day After

There are two theories floating around concerning the whole Apple / Intel marriage announced yesterday by Steve Jobs at the WWDC. One, Apple was forced into bed with Intel by IBM. Two, Apple sought out Intel as part of a long range roadmap IBM simply wasn't interested in. If I were a betting man, I'd let it all ride on the former. The reason? Say it with me now -- PowerBooks.

Sales of laptops produced by Apple have accelerated upward for the past few years, while desktop sales have remained consistent (which is another way of saying 'flat'). The G5 chip, released in 2003, has yet to find its way into a laptop after two years. The PowerBook doesn't need an upgrade soon, it needs one now, and according to both the WSJ and NY Times over the weekend, a decent update for PowerBooks wouldn't have materialized for at least another two years, if not longer.

So what was Apple to do? Wait a couple of years for IBM to produce what they needed, only to have it arrive competitively underpowered? They'd sell a boatload of PowerBooks to those who waited, sure, but then what? Once again Apple would have found itself in exactly the same situation as it is now.

I'd bet that Jobs and company exhausted every possible option to keep them from activating the nuclear option, but there was simply nowhere else to go. It's one hell of gamble, and it'll be painful -- no doubt. But this is likely a blessing in disguise, and sometimes people have to be forced into doing what's right.

The best part about the Intel deal is that the whole silly megahertz war will finally be over. For all intents and purposes, Apple and the whole PC hardware industry will share nearly identical components. Even if Apple sold their hardware for 5-10% higher than a Dell, and used nearly the same components, that extra amount would be a bargain when factoring in Apple's product design skills, the value of the bundled operating system, and the applications contained therein. The battle will no longer be about platforms, but software.

In two years, Apple will no longer have to worry about IBM or Motorola fulfilling their promises to remain competitive with Intel (or AMD for that matter). Whenever Intel releases a new chip, everyone will benefit, and the playing field will once again be even. That means Apple can concentrate on what they do best.

The most impressive part of the announcement (for me anyway) was that the long-fabled "Marklar" project turned out to be true. This was the code name for a secret workshop in the basement of Cupertino where shadowy developers maintained x86 builds of OS X just in case Apple ever needed to throw the switch.

Now, think about that for a moment -- to use an (admittedly cliche) car analogy, this was the equivalent of an auto maker producing alternate versions of a car's engine, keeping them tuned, bug free and optimized, and locking them away in storage just in case the street versions didn't fulfill expectations. Or from a web developer's perspective, producing two, complete, functioning versions of a web site, using one online, and constantly updating the unused internal version with each and every site edit.

But we're talking about something much bigger and more complex -- a full blown operating system, and all the internal applications produced for it. Microsoft can't seem to get a single version of Longhorn out the door for one platform, while Apple has released multiple versions of OS X for two platforms? That's not just incredible, it's stunning. I can only imagine how vindicated and proud Apple's x86 team must feel.

In summary, I'm much more optimistic about the news today than I was yesterday, though I'm anything but happy about the market value of my PowerBook and G5, which probably dropped like a rock overnight. But two years down the road it won't matter. Being able to still use OS X, running on the fastest chips available in the marketplace, does.

For an interesting perspective from third party Mac software developers, check out "Game Developers React To Intel Switch" over at IMG. Most are anything but thrilled by the news, for their raison d'etre may have just flushed town the toilet.